Election Night
Results and the Pro-Life "Increment"
By David N. O’Steen, Ph.D.
Continued...
National Right to Life PAC was active and highly visible. As
a testimony to the hard work and reach of NRL PAC, a nationwide
poll of 800 voters taken by The Polling Company found that fully
22% of voters said that they recalled hearing advertising or
receiving information from National Right to Life PAC.
The Polling Company also found that 36% of the voters said
abortion affected their vote. Of those, 23% said they voted for
pro-life candidates while only 13% said they voted for
pro-abortion candidates. This yielded a significant advantage
for pro-life candidates in contest after contest.
The 23% who said they voted for pro-life candidates voted
overwhelmingly for Republicans, according to the poll, while a
large majority of the 13% who voted for pro-abortion candidates
voted for Democrats, reflecting the fact that most pro-life
candidates were Republicans.
However, the 60% who said abortion did not affect their vote
voted heavily for Democrats. So, too, did the remaining 4% who
were undecided on the question. In many races, this was enough
to negate the pro-life increment.
The Polling Company found that 3.4% said abortion was the
most important issue affecting their vote, and 70% of these said
they voted for pro-life candidates. This yielded a 2% advantage
for pro-life candidates among these voters.
In an election year in which there were many very close
contests, this plus for pro-life candidates saved many from
defeat. The same voters voted better than 4-1 for Republicans
over Democrats.
However, 22% of the population said that the most important
issue affecting their vote was Iraq. Those voters voted
approximately 4-1 for Democrats over Republicans.
The Polling Company also asked how voters felt about
abortion. It found that a majority of voters would prohibit
almost all abortions.
Twenty-eight percent felt abortion should be prohibited in
all circumstances, or only be legal to save the life of the
mother—the position of National Right to Life. An additional 24%
believed abortion should be legal only to save the life of the
mother or in cases of rape or incest.
When these two groups are combined, it means that 52% took a
pro-life position that would prohibit almost all abortions.
Forty-two percent took a "pro-choice" position of allowing
abortion for any reason. Twenty percent said they would allow
abortion either through the first six months or throughout
pregnancy. And 22% told The Polling Company they would allow
abortion for any reason but only in the first three months.
Seven percent were undecided.
Pro-Life Advantage for Senatorial
Candidates
Statewide polls of approximately 2,000 voters in each of a
number of key Senate races taken by Zogby International also
showed a pro-life increment for both winning and losing pro-life
U.S. Senate candidates.
In Ohio, 27% said they recalled seeing information or hearing
advertisements from National Right to Life PAC. Thirty-two
percent told Zogby that abortion affected their vote. Of those,
21% said they voted for candidates who oppose abortion and 10%
for candidates who support abortion.
Of those who said abortion affected their vote 20% voted for
pro-life Republican incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine and 11% voted for
pro-abortion Democratic challenger Rep. Sherrod Brown.
Unfortunately, the pro-life advantage for Sen. DeWine was not
enough to overcome the strong Democratic vote among other
voters.
In Missouri, where pro-life Republican incumbent Sen. Jim
Talent was defeated by pro-abortion Democratic challenger Claire
McCaskill, 36% told Zogby International that they recalled
seeing information or hearing advertising from National Right to
Life PAC. Moreover, 36% said that abortion affected the way they
voted.
Of those, 26% said they voted for pro-life candidates and 9%
said they voted for candidates who support abortion. Further, of
those who said abortion affected their vote, 24% voted for
Talent and 11% voted for McCaskill. Unfortunately, this strong
advantage for Sen. Talent among those who voted on the issue of
abortion was more than countered by a strong vote for Claire
McCaskill among other voters.
In the agonizingly close race between pro-life Republican
incumbent Sen. George Allen and pro-abortion Democratic
challenger Jim Webb in Virginia, 30% said the abortion issue
affected their vote. Zogby found that 19% said they voted for
candidates who oppose abortion and 11% voted for candidates who
support abortion.
The Zogby poll also found that among those who voted based on
a candidate’s position on abortion, 18% voted for Allen and 12%
voted for Webb. Nineteen percent recalled hearing advertising or
seeing information from National Right to Life PAC.
Once again, unfortunately, this pro-life advantage for Sen.
Allen did not overcome the Democratic advantage for Jim Webb
among voters who did not vote on the issue of abortion.
In the race for Tennessee’s open Senate seat, where pro-life
Republican Bob Corker won a very close race against pro-abortion
Rep. Harold Ford, Jr., 35% said the abortion issue affected
their vote. Of those, four in five (28%) said they voted for
pro-life candidates and 6% voted for candidates who support
abortion.
When cross-tabulated with their vote specifically for the
Senate, 26% voted for Corker and 9% voted for Ford. Twenty-six
percent said they recalled receiving, seeing, or hearing
information from National Right to Life PAC.
Pro-lifers are especially grateful to National Right to Life
Western Regional Director Brian Johnston, who flew to Tennessee
to work for NRL PAC in the final weeks, and Stan Schulz, a
former National Right to Life director from Tennessee, who
volunteered for NRL PAC. With the outstanding assistance of
National Right to Life Hispanic Outreach Director Raimundo Rojas
and State Organizational Development Coordinator Marji Higgins,
both of whom were also working for NRL PAC, Brian and Stan
organized NRL PAC’s grassroots volunteer efforts for
Senator-elect Corker.
Truly, NRL PAC’s efforts provided the margin of victory in
Tennessee where Corker won by just 3%.
While a few ballots remain to be counted (with recounts a
possibility in a few instances), there are approximately 15,
U.S. House races where NRL PAC was involved in which the
pro-life candidate won by 3% or less. It is quite fair to say
these candidates won because of the pro-life increment.
Eight of these races in which the margin was 3% or less found
an NRL PAC-backed candidate defeating an EMILY’s List candidate.
(EMILY’s List, which backs only the most militantly pro-abortion
Democrats, had over $30 million at its disposal in this
election.) According to NRL Political Director Karen Cross,
there were a total of 18 races where an NRL PAC candidate went
head-to-head with an EMILY’s List candidate. NRL PAC won 14.
Without these wins provided by the pro-life increment, the
pro-life loss in the U.S. House would have been twice as great
as it was. In every race, whether won or lost, every volunteer
who worked to build the pro-life margin deserves the thanks of
the entire movement.
Even in the adverse conditions of 2006, the pro-life margin
produced victories and the pro-life movement is in a much better
position in Congress than it would have been otherwise. The
pro-life increment is alive and well and with our hard work and
perseverance will produce many victories in the future.
Here's the math behind the
increment...
Being pro-life is an
advantage for candidates...